Voting begins on 224 seats in Karnataka: BJP returning to power will break 38-year-old record or smaller parties will become kingmakers

After a month-long election campaign in Karnataka, voting will be held for 224 seats from 7 am today. There are 5.31 crore voters and 2615 candidates in the state. The contest is between BJP, Congress and JDS. The results will come on 13 May.

This time, for the BJP, the big leaders of the party, including PM Narendra Modi, held more than 450 rallies. Also did more than 100 road shows. PM Modi himself stayed in Karnataka for two days. Whereas, Rahul, Priyanka and Sonia held more than 31 meetings.

In the election campaign, the Congress focused on the corruption and commission of the BJP government. Whereas, BJP made Bajrangbali, Bajrang Dal, terrorism an issue. Modi mentioned Bajrangbali in 12 out of 19 meetings.

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See the pictures of voting…

Actor Prakash Raj arrives at the polling station at St. Joseph’s Indian School in Shantinagar to cast his vote.

Siddhalinga Swami of Siddhaganga Mutt arrives at a polling booth to cast his vote in Tumakuru.

3 factors become a challenge for political parties in Karnataka…

1. Hung assembly 3 times in last 5 elections: For the last 38 years in Karnataka, the government has been changing every 5 years. The last time the Janata Party led by Ramakrishna Hegde won an election while in power was in 1985. At the same time, out of the last five elections (1999, 2004, 2008, 2013 and 2018), a single party got majority only twice (1999, 2013). BJP became the single largest party in 2004, 2008, 2018. He formed the government with external support.

What is the status now: No party is opening its cards on the alliance. The Congress has alleged that the JDS has made preparations to go with the BJP. However, JDS has ruled out the possibility of an alliance with any party.

2. Lingayat-Vokkaliga will decide the result: There are 17% Lingayat voters in the state. They have influence on 75-80 seats. Vokkaliga voters, who account for 14% of the population, influence 50-55 seats. 9.5% Kurba voters change the results of 25-30 seats. 32% SC voters decide the result for 30-35 seats and 17% Muslim voters for 35-40 seats.

What is the status now: Of the 104 BJP MLAs who won last time, 49 belong to the Lingayat and Vokkaliga communities. This time BJP has fielded 109 candidates from both these communities. There are 37 candidates of BJP, 35 of Congress, 31 of JDS in SC category. 12 candidates of Congress and 23 of JDS are Muslims, while BJP has not given ticket to any Muslim.

3. Smaller parties and independents become a challenge: In Karnataka, the direct contest is between the BJP and the Congress. The third force is JDS. This time smaller parties like Aam Aadmi Party, BSP, Uttam Prajakia Party, Left parties, Karnataka Rashtra Samithi, Kalyan Rajya Pragati Paksha have also fielded candidates.

What is the status now: BJP, JDS including Congress are afraid of cutting votes from smaller parties. If these parties cut votes from one to ten thousand, then there can be a big impact on the result. In the last election, unrecognized parties including independents got 4.11% vote share.

Understand the election campaign of BJP-Congress with statements and photos…

1. The BJP placed Modi at the center of the campaign; Focus on Bajrang Bali, snakes, terror: PM Narendra Modi did 19 rallies and 6 roadshows between April 29 and May 6, ie in the last 8 days of the campaign. Did a 36 km long road show in two days. National leaders of BJP held 206 public rallies and 90 road-shows. State leaders held 231 meetings and 48 roadshows.

PM Modi surrounded the Congress for being called Bajrang Dal Ban, Bajrangbali, Kerala Story, Love Jihad, 91 abuses and poisonous snakes. Other leaders also continued to speak on appeasement, Muslim reservation, terrorism.

2. Sonia entered the field, Rahul held 16 and Priyanka held 15 meetings: Congress also campaigned with full force for the last 8 days. Sonia Gandhi held a meeting in support of former CM Shettar who left BJP and joined Congress. National and state leaders of Congress did 99 rallies and 33 road shows. Rahul did 16 rallies and 2 road shows, while Priyanka did 15 rallies and 10 road shows.

The corruption of the BJP government was mentioned in every Congress rally. Government machinery was targeted from CM regarding 40% commission. Adani was also mentioned along with local issues.

Rahul Gandhi rode a delivery boy’s scooter in Bengaluru on 7 May.

Now see in the graphic eight seats of Karnataka, where big leaders are in the fray…

BJP didn’t get majority in 2018… still formed government
In 2018, BJP had won 104 seats, Congress 78 and JDS 37. No party got majority. Yeddyurappa from BJP was sworn in as Chief Minister on 17 May, but resigned on 23 May due to not being able to prove his majority in the House. After this Congress-JDS coalition government was formed.

After 14 months, the politics of Karnataka again took a turn. Kumaraswamy had to leave the chair after the rebellion of some Congress and JDS MLAs. Yeddyurappa merged these rebels with the BJP and on 26 July 2019, with the support of 219 MLAs, he again became the chief minister, but resigned after two years. The BJP made Basavaraj Bommai the Chief Minister.