The big question for Kansas entering the 2021-22 season was consistent point guard play. Bill Self went out and landed transfer Remy Martin, an All-Pac-12 guard at Arizona State who was accustomed to being the focal point of the offense. If Martin wasn’t ready to be more facilitator than scorer, Kansas cutting down the nets seemed far-fetched.
Martin started the season well, then battled injuries and was in and out of the lineup for most of conference play. But he played arguably his best basketball when it mattered, averaging 14.0 points, 4.8 rebounds and 2.7 assists while shooting 47.6% from 3 in the NCAA tournament. He was the Jayhawks’ best player in wins over Creighton and Providence. Could Kansas have won the title without Martin excelling late in the season? Doubtful.
There are hundreds of variables that will ultimately factor into which team wins the 2023 national championship six months from now, but in the preseason, it’s all on paper and easier to boil down a team’s fatal flaws to one or two items.
That’s what we’re here to address: The nine biggest questions that will determine the national championship discussion for the 2022-23 college basketball season.
Find more preseason coverage here.
1. Was 2022 NCAA tournament North Carolina the real North Carolina?
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Florida State has no answers for North Carolina as the Tar Heels lead by 38 points at halftime.
North Carolina enters the season as ESPN’s Preseason No. 1 team, with the expectation that it will carry over some of the momentum that propelled it to the national title game before losing to Kansas. There’s obviously some risk here, given this is the same team that lost to Pittsburgh at home and recorded five losses of 17 points or more during the 2021-22 season. But Carolina was also 17-4 over its final 21 games of the season, including two wins over Duke, two wins over Virginia Tech and victories over Baylor and UCLA.
Armando Bacot was as dominant as ever. Caleb Love and R.J. Davis figured out a way to make it work in the backcourt, with Davis taking on a bigger playmaking role. Perhaps the biggest key, especially in the NCAA tournament, was Brady Manek becoming a nightmare for defenses — averaging 17.0 points and shooting 43.2% from 3 in the aforementioned 21 games. Manek is the only key loss from last season’s team, but in his place arrives another stretch-four transfer in former Northwestern forward Pete Nance, who shot better than 45% from 3.
Hubert Davis should have much-improved depth from last season, so if Nance can replicate much of what Manek did down the stretch, that March momentum should continue rolling.
2. Does Gonzaga have the NBA-caliber talent around Drew Timme to finally silence the doubters?
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Drew Timme gets the rejection inside and Julian Strawther turns it into three points on the other end.
Gonzaga has earned a 1-seed in each of the past three NCAA tournaments, entering the last two tournaments as the favorite to cut down the nets. But despite two national championship appearances in the past five NCAA tournaments, the Zags haven’t taken that final step. Is this the year? There are a few more questions about Gonzaga’s roster than in the past couple of years, when Mark Few’s program had two top-five NBA draft picks and a quartet of top-31 picks.
Drew Timme was an anchor each of those seasons, but the Wooden Award candidate had the likes of Jalen Suggs and Corey Kispert around him in 2020-21, and Chet Holmgren and Andrew Nembhard in 2021-22. This season, Julian Strawther returns as a starter, but the highest-rated NBA prospect is Nolan Hickman, a former five-star recruit who came off the bench in 2022-23. Hunter Sallis and LSU transfer Efton Reid are in that same former five-star tier. And Chattanooga transfer Malachi Smith was the SoCon Player of the Year.
Few needs a couple of these players to become consistent No. 2s to Timme.
3. Were the 12 games we saw from Marcus Sasser last season a sign of things to come?
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Check out the top plays from Houston’s Marcus Sasser, who’s season was cut short due to injury.
No guard in the country is getting more preseason All-American love nationally than the Houston guard: the expected go-to guy for the top-five Cougars. But much of that recognition is based off of last season, when Sasser played just 12 games before shutting it down with a foot injury. Sasser was fantastic in the short stretch, though, averaging 17.7 points and shooting 43.7% from 3. He was on pace for a breakout campaign, as his sophomore season numbers were 13.7 points and 33.5% 3-point shooting.
Houston living up to its preseason top-five hype might go hand-in-hand with Sasser continuing his stellar play from the first half of last season.
4. How will Jon Scheyer and Kyle Neptune fare replacing Hall of Famers?
Mike Krzyzewski and Jay Wright are no longer coaching, but Duke and Villanova will still be home to lottery picks and nationally relevant programs. Scheyer has already proved himself on the recruiting trail, securing a top-ranked class in 2022 and currently sitting at No. 1 in 2023. Now it’s time to show it on the floor. Duke is loaded with talent, if young and inexperienced, at the top of the roster.
Neptune, who had less time to prepare to replace a legend, has a little more roster continuity. Caleb Daniels, Eric Dixon and Brandon Slater are all back as regulars from last season’s Final Four group. But All-Big East guard Justin Moore is out indefinitely after tearing his Achilles in the NCAA tournament. And, Neptune’s job got a little more difficult after news last week that projected top-10 pick Cameron Whitmore is out until early November with a thumb injury.
5. How quickly can Arkansas‘ 11 newcomers — including three projected first-round picks — mesh?
Eric Musselman is used to turning over rosters quickly, building his best teams at Nevada and now Arkansas primarily via the transfer portal. But he has never quite done it like this. Davonte Davis is the lone returner from last season’s group of players who averaged more than 2.3 points. And, this time most of the newcomers aren’t even transfers. Sure, Trevon Brazile (Missouri) and Ricky Council IV (Wichita State) could start immediately, but many of the eyes in Fayetteville are on the trio of projected first-round picks: Nick Smith, Anthony Black and Jordan Walsh.
Smith is the top-ranked college player in ESPN’s 2023 mock draft, and he’ll be counted on for playmaking, shooting, scoring and everything in between — from day one. Black is a 6-7 point guard with high-level passing ability, while Walsh should be an impact two-way player.
All three could start right away, but there’s also five experienced transfers — and Davis — to fight for minutes. If all the pieces can come together, Musselman should have one of the most talented teams in the country.
6. Are Indiana and Creighton ready to make jumps and become league favorites?
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With Baylor Scheierman transferring to Creighton, relive some of his best plays from last season.
Indiana lost 14 games last season and made the NCAA tournament only via the First Four, yet is the Big Ten favorite. Creighton finished No. 50 in adjusted efficiency margin at KenPom and was 23-12 last season, yet is the Big East favorite. It’s mostly the same core of pieces for both teams too — with a couple of key additions. For Indiana, top-25 recruits Jalen Hood-Schifino and Malik Reneau are entering the fold, with Hood-Schifino generating plenty of preseason buzz. Creighton, meanwhile, landed South Dakota State transfer Baylor Scheierman, perhaps the top NBA prospect in the portal last spring.
For Indiana to make the jump, it will have to become a better shooting team. The Hoosiers were 13th in the Big Ten last season in 3-point shooting, making just 31.9% from beyond the arc. Creighton flat-out needs to be better offensively, after ranking ninth in the Big East in offensive efficiency — scoring fewer than 0.98 points per possession in league play.
7. Does John Calipari change anything after the way the past two seasons ended?
It has been a difficult couple of seasons in Lexington. Two years ago, Kentucky went 9-16. Last year, it bounced back and looked like a potential Final Four team late in the season — but lost to 15-seed St. Peter’s in the first round of the NCAA tournament. What sort of adjustments will Calipari have up his sleeve?
This year’s Wildcats will be an older group, although Calipari’s reliance on freshmen already waned dramatically last year, with only TyTy Washington Jr. seeing a consistent role. Five-stars Chris Livingston and Cason Wallace will see extended roles immediately this season, but that might be it.
Kentucky should also have more versatility and flexibility. Much is expected of Jacob Toppin, who averaged just 6.2 points last season but went 8-for-15 from 3 in four games on Kentucky’s summer tour and was one of just two players to play at least 20 minutes in all four games (consensus National Player of the Year Oscar Tshiebwe was the other). Former Iowa transfer CJ Fredrick and Illinois State transfer Antonio Reeves should help with the perimeter shooting.
8. Can either of the past two national champions compete at the top again?
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LJ Cryer misses a 3-point attempt but is given a second try from Adam Flagler.
Kansas and Baylor are both in ESPN’s preseason top 10, although neither is being discussed extensively as a national championship contender. The Jayhawks lost first-round picks Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun, as well as starting center David McCormack and sixth man Remy Martin. Baylor bid farewell to three starters and sixth man/lottery pick Jeremy Sochan.
But Bill Self and Scott Drew are two of the most successful coaches around, and should have the talent to remain top-10 staples throughout the season. Kansas brings in a top-five recruiting class featuring elite scorer Gradey Dick, as well as Texas Tech transfer Kevin McCullar, and there are hopes of a breakout season coming from Jalen Wilson. Baylor will have one of the elite perimeter groups in the country, with top-10 recruit Keyonte George coming in to join Adam Flagler and a healthy LJ Cryer.
9. Who is this season’s Auburn or Arizona?
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Jack Nunge drains a big-time hook shot to give Xavier the lead before Tyrece Radford’s near make in the NIT championship’s final seconds.
While neither ended up in the Final Four, the Tigers opened the season at No. 22 and went on to win the SEC and earn a 2-seed in the NCAA tournament, while the Wildcats went from unranked to a Pac-12 champions and a 1-seed. There are going to be a few teams to follow in their footsteps and come out of nowhere to compete at the top of the rankings. We just have to find them.
Last year in this column, Auburn (genius!) and Mississippi State (not-so-smart) were the two main picks, with Indiana (solid) a deeper option. Let’s see if I can hit on at least one again this season.
Xavier could be a factor in the Big East. Jack Nunge and Zach Freemantle form one of the best big man duos in the country, while Colby Jones continues to get better and better. UTEP transfer Souley Boum and freshmen Kam Craft and Desmond Claude bring some pop to the backcourt. Sean Miller has proved to be one of the best coaches in the country. Can he make waves in his second year one at Xavier?
Another new coach with high expectations is Todd Golden, whose Florida squad might be able to make noise quickly. Colin Castleton is All-American caliber, and five other rotation players are also back from last season. Florida also hit the transfer portal in a big way, with Kyle Lofton (St. Bonaventure) and Will Richard (Belmont) considered key pickups. But the X factor could be LSU transfer Alex Fudge, who is already generating NBA draft buzz despite putting up only 3.3 points last season.
And don’t be surprised to see Oklahoma exceed preseason rankings. The Sooners bring back Tanner Groves and Jalen Hill up front and completely revamped their backcourt with freshmen Otega Oweh and Milos Uzan and transfers Grant Sherfield and Joe Bamisile. Porter Moser has some talent on his roster.