National signing day preview: Top storylines, recruits to watch and the teams with the most at stake

While the college basketball season tips off Monday, recruiting will get the headlines one final time before ceding to the action on the hardwood.

The early signing period begins Wednesday and lasts until Nov. 16. In between those dates, the vast majority of committed prospects will sign their letters of intent and lock in their school of choice moving forward.

Although the NLI is less ironclad than it was a decade ago — as schools tend to be more lenient when granting releases due to coaching changes, other players entering the program, etc. — the early signing period represents the marquee time in basketball recruiting.

What should you be watching for over the next week? The dominoes have already started falling, with top-10 prospect Ron Holland committing to Texas on Saturday and top-50 recruits Mikey Williams and Javonte Taylor picking Memphis. Andrej Stojakovic, another top-25 prospect, is set to decide on Monday. And at least three five-star prospects in the ESPN 100 are expected to make their college decisions during the signing period, while another top-10 prospect could decide to announce. The No. 1 recruiting class is also on the line.

We break down the storylines, the names and the programs to monitor this week.

Jump to:
Three main storylines
Notable five-stars | Top-25 recruits on the board
Three teams with the most at stake

Three key storylines to watch for

Duke vs. Kentucky for No. 1: It’s a familiar sight at the top of the class rankings this cycle, with Duke and Kentucky reclaiming their status at the top of the recruiting food chain. Either the Blue Devils or Wildcats had the top-ranked class every year from 2009 to 2018, as well as in 2020 and 2022. They’ve finished Nos. 1 and 2 six different times in the past 10 years. And it’s a lock one of them will end up there in 2023, too.

Duke got off to a hot start, landing five-stars Mackenzie Mgbako, Sean Stewart, Caleb Foster and Jared McCain, as well as top-40 recruit T.J. Power. But Kentucky has surged of late, landing pledges from top-10 prospects Justin Edwards, Aaron Bradshaw and Robert Dillingham, plus top-30 recruit Reed Sheppard. And the Wildcats would overtake Duke if they land No. 1 recruit D.J. Wagner.

What’s the latest with Bronny James? LeBron James‘ son seems to be in no rush to commit anywhere. We could’ve said the same for the other social media superstar in the 2023 class, but Mikey Williams suddenly set a visit to Memphis for this past weekend and committed to the Tigers on the spot.

But don’t expect any sudden decisions from James. A legitimate top-40 recruit in his own right, James has had a very quiet recruitment – which is to be expected given his lineage and the fact he rarely does interviews.

But Oregon and Michigan have been linked to James, and he also made a visit to Ohio State, a longtime favorite of his father’s.

Is anyone left? If the top-25 prospects with scheduled announcement dates proceed as scheduled — and D.J. Wagner makes his commitment in the fall, even if it’s not during the signing period — we’ll enter the winter with just one uncommitted top-25 prospect. (At most. A.J. Johnson could also commit at any time.)

That’s incredibly rare and speaks to the speed at which recruitments are ending nowadays. Some of it has to do with players taking official visits during their junior year, but it also has to do with the two factors on everyone’s mind when it comes to college sports: name, image, likeness and the transfer portal.

Players can begin to figure out NIL possibilities once they choose a school, and they also want to make decisions before the portal starts to fill up and schools have other priorities.

Five-star commitments to expect

Isaiah Collier (No. 6): Collier, one of the two best guards in the 2023 class, has scheduled a commitment date for Nov. 16. He is considering Cincinnati, Michigan, UCLA and USC — although one school has emerged as the favorite heading into the final couple of weeks. Andy Enfield and the Trojans made Collier a priority and hosted him on campus on multiple occasions. They also landed his high school and AAU teammate, Arrinten Page, in mid-October.

Cody Williams (No. 14): The younger brother of former Santa Clara star Jalen Williams, a lottery pick in June’s NBA draft, Williams has similar potential upside. He has eight schools on his final list and has taken visits to Arizona, Colorado, LSU and USC over the past few months. Arizona had momentum earlier this fall, but the Wildcats have faded. Of late, it’s been Colorado and LSU receiving the most buzz. He will announce his decision on the first day of the signing period, Nov. 9.

Baye Fall (No. 20) and Assane Diop (No. 56): Fall and Diop, cousins and teammates on the high school and AAU circuits, will make their announcements on Nov. 15. Fall is down to Arkansas, Auburn, Rutgers and Seton Hall, while Diop has Arkansas, Colorado and Seton Hall left on his list. The two have been considered a package deal for most of their recruitment, with two schools overlapping on their lists. Arkansas is perceived as the favorite here.

Top-25 recruits still on the board

D.J. Wagner (No. 1): The No. 1 recruit in the 2023 class, Wagner has been the subject of an intense recruiting battle between Kentucky and Louisville. Wagner’s father, Dajuan, played for John Calipari at Memphis, while his grandfather, Milt, played at Louisville and was also hired by the university last spring. Kentucky is considered the favorite heading down the stretch, especially after Wagner signed an NIL deal with Nike. Expect a decision before the start of his high school season.

A.J. Johnson (No. 25): Johnson seems the most likely top-25 prospect to wait until 2023 to make a decision. With the upheaval surrounding Donda Academy, Johnson landed with SoCal Academy last Thursday, days before the early signing period. He has taken official visits to LSU and Texas, while also canceling or postponing a few other trips. Most recently, he didn’t make it to Louisville’s Midnight Madness festivities but reportedly plans to reschedule his trip. Expect this recruitment to go a bit longer, but also look for the professional route to be an option too.

Three teams with the most at stake

Arkansas Razorbacks: Coming off the No. 2 recruiting class in the 2022 class, the Razorbacks have just one commit entering the signing period: top-25 recruit Layden Blocker. They also just lost out on Ron Holland to Texas on Saturday. But by the end of the month, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Eric Musselman’s program have three pledges, including a five-star recruit. They’re considered the favorites for Baye Fall and Assane Diop.

Kentucky Wildcats: This is all about D.J. Wagner. He’s not a lock to decide during the signing period, but if he does, Kentucky is considered the favorite. And if the Wildcats land him, they have the inside track to the No. 1 recruiting class in the country. As mentioned above, John Calipari already has three top-eight recruits and another ranked in the top 30. Wagner would put Kentucky over the top.

USC Trojans: Outside of Wagner, the only other top-10 prospect still available is Isaiah Collier — with USC emerging in recent weeks as the clear favorite for his commitment. Should the Trojans land Collier, it would be Andy Enfield’s first five-star pledge since Evan Mobley picked USC back in the 2020 class. And it would also provide an anchor for the Trojans’ class, a group that includes ESPN 100 center Arrinten Page and four-star guard Silas Demary.